Page 89 - 《客語及少數族群語言政策》附錄_少數語言法律

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Projection and trajectory to a million

Chart 2 below shows two potential pathways for the number of Welsh speakers aged three and over in
Wales between 2017 and 2050.

• Projection: based on continuing the trends seen in the 2011 Census
for Welsh speakers and demographic trends, no policy change.

• Trajectory to 1 million: based on policy changes that will be
required to fulfil the vision outlined in this strategy.

Chart 2: Projection and trajectory of the number of Welsh speakers
aged three and over, 2011–2050

1,200,000

1,000,000

Number of Welsh speakers aged 3 and over 400,000

800,000 Trajectory

600,000 Projection

200,000

0

2025
2020
2015
2011
2030
Year 2035 2040 2045 2050
The projection
The lower line offers projections of the number of Welsh speakers, based on population
projections and 2011 Census data. We consider the census to be the authoritative source on the
number of Welsh speakers in Wales and it is the basis for our aspiration of a million Welsh
speakers. However the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have embarked on a Census
Transformation Programme with a view of the 2021 Census being the last of its kind. Welsh
Government will continue to use our close relationship with ONS to participate in this work with
one of our priorities being to maintain a robust and solid statistical base in relation to the Welsh
language.

The projection is based on a scenario where the policy landscape for the Welsh language and
Welsh in education stays consistent with the current situation.

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