Page 90 - 《客語及少數族群語言政策》附錄_少數語言法律

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The projection is an attempt to estimate the number of Welsh speakers in 2050 in order to
understand approximately how many additional Welsh speakers will be required in order to attain
the target of a million Welsh speakers. As with any projection this should be treated with care since
it is based on a series of assumptions which are themselves based on previous patterns – these
patterns are likely to alter over time.

The trajectory to a million

The top line of the graph maps a potential journey towards the million, based on the policy intent of this
strategy.

A number of factors will influence the precise journey towards a million and therefore we will
continuously review progress so that we can monitor gains made and revisit the trajectory as
necessary.

The first four years will see very small gains. We anticipate that greater gains will be made towards
the end of the first decade as we reach two of our transformational milestones: the expansion of
Welsh-medium early years provision by 150 nursery groups and an increase in the proportion of
each school year group receiving Welsh-medium education to 30 per cent by 2031.

This trajectory uses the demographic model and feeds in different assumptions about the
outcomes of education, language transmission in the family and Welsh for Adults to consider one
potential trajectory to the million.

Modelling demographic change in the future is complex; modelling the impact of policy changes
on specific characteristics of the population is even harder. As such, this should be used to
consider the broad trajectory we will need to follow to reach our ambition. Bearing this in mind,
the table on pages 24–25 provides the figures for the trajectory at regular intervals between 2017 and
2050.

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